Copa Libertadores · Final
Palmeiras
PAL
Estudiantes
EST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palmeiras41%
Draw30%
Estudiantes29%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.02
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
37%Possession35%
36%Territory35%
24%From set plays63%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.5%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palmeiras, 2 for Estudiantes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estudiantes
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 4 of 124 matches, not the full season.