Copa Libertadores · Semi-finals
Palmeiras
PAL
Fluminense
FLU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palmeiras62%
Draw21%
Fluminense17%
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.07
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession53%
39%Territory31%
44%From set plays2%
0.13Chance quality0.21
5.4%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Palmeiras, 2 for Fluminense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Palmeiras
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 4 of 119 matches, not the full season.