Copa Libertadores · Semi-finals
Fluminense
FLU
Palmeiras
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fluminense26%
Draw24%
Palmeiras49%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.80
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
53%Possession46%
31%Territory39%
2%From set plays44%
0.21Chance quality0.13
5.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Fluminense, 2 for Palmeiras. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Palmeiras
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 4 of 119 matches, not the full season.