Primera División · Clausura - Round 16
Tigre
TIG
Sarmiento
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tigre39%
Draw23%
Sarmiento39%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.95
Over 2.5
73%
Both to score
74%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.2%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.4%
- 2–34.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession30%
40%Territory36%
41%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.14
7.2%Directness14.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tigre, 2 for Sarmiento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.