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Primera División · Clausura - Round 16

Instituto

INS

Newell's Old Boys

NEW

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Instituto46%
Draw28%
Newell's Old Boys26%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.07

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.4%
  • 1012.0%
  • 219.2%
  • 008.9%
  • 018.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession45%
38%Territory33%
40%From set plays32%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Instituto, 3 for Newell's Old Boys. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.