Primera División · Clausura - Round 16
Instituto
INS
Newell's Old Boys
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Instituto46%
Draw28%
Newell's Old Boys26%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.07
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession45%
38%Territory33%
40%From set plays32%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Instituto, 3 for Newell's Old Boys. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Newell's Old Boys
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.