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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 16

Gimnasia Mendoza

GIM

Independiente Rivadavia

INE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gimnasia Mendoza42%
Draw26%
Independiente Rivadavia32%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.36

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession45%
36%Territory42%
8%From set plays31%
0.07Chance quality0.07
8.8%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Gimnasia Mendoza, 2 for Independiente Rivadavia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 221 matches, not the full season.