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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 15

Defensa y Justicia

DEF

Independiente

IND

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Defensa y Justicia33%
Draw27%
Independiente41%

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.50

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession57%
38%Territory42%
23%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.1%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Defensa y Justicia, 3 for Independiente. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.