Primera División · Clausura - Round 15
Defensa y Justicia
DEF
Independiente
IND
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Defensa y Justicia56%
Draw24%
Independiente19%
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession41%
47%Territory39%
6%From set plays19%
0.07Chance quality0.08
4.1%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Defensa y Justicia, 2 for Independiente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Defensa y Justicia
Independiente
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 221 matches, not the full season.