Primera División · Clausura - Round 14
Gimnasia LP
GIN
Sarmiento
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gimnasia LP67%
Draw16%
Sarmiento17%
Expected goals
3.10 – 1.64
Over 2.5
84%
Both to score
77%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 3–17.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession30%
37%Territory36%
40%From set plays21%
0.21Chance quality0.14
10.8%Directness14.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Gimnasia LP, 2 for Sarmiento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gimnasia LP
Sarmiento
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.