Primera División · Clausura - Round 14
Independiente
IND
Boca Juniors
BOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Independiente42%
Draw24%
Boca Juniors34%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.64
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession48%
42%Territory28%
21%From set plays3%
0.08Chance quality0.19
6.1%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Independiente, 2 for Boca Juniors. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Independiente
Boca Juniors
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.