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Primera División · Clausura - Round 14

Independiente

IND

Boca Juniors

BOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Independiente42%
Draw24%
Boca Juniors34%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.64

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 119.8%
  • 218.5%
  • 127.6%
  • 227.1%
  • 106.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession48%
42%Territory28%
21%From set plays3%
0.08Chance quality0.19
6.1%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Independiente, 2 for Boca Juniors. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.