Primera División · Clausura - Round 13
Belgrano
BEL
River Plate
RIV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Belgrano45%
Draw22%
River Plate33%
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.90
Over 2.5
76%
Both to score
76%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–17.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–25.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
64%Possession66%
47%Territory53%
15%From set plays10%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.0%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Belgrano, 3 for River Plate. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.