Primera División · Clausura - Round 12
Aldosivi
ALD
Sarmiento
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aldosivi36%
Draw21%
Sarmiento42%
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.21
Over 2.5
78%
Both to score
78%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 2–35.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession30%
33%Territory36%
26%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.14
8.9%Directness14.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aldosivi, 2 for Sarmiento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sarmiento
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.