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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 12

Rosario Central

ROS

Independiente Rivadavia

INE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rosario Central48%
Draw22%
Independiente Rivadavia30%

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.73

Over 2.5

73%

Both to score

73%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–18.0%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–26.5%
  • 3–15.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession45%
40%Territory40%
25%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.15
8.2%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Rosario Central, 3 for Independiente Rivadavia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.