Primera División · Clausura - Round 11
Sarmiento
SAR
River Plate
RIV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sarmiento24%
Draw19%
River Plate57%
Expected goals
1.78 – 2.64
Over 2.5
80%
Both to score
77%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.5%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–35.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
30%Possession66%
36%Territory53%
21%From set plays10%
0.14Chance quality0.13
14.8%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sarmiento, 3 for River Plate. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sarmiento
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.