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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 11

Estudiantes

EST

Gimnasia Mendoza

GIM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Estudiantes48%
Draw26%
Gimnasia Mendoza26%

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.21

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession51%
36%Territory40%
37%From set plays24%
0.07Chance quality0.07
7.6%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Estudiantes, 3 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.