Primera División · Clausura - Round 11
Independiente
IND
Instituto
INS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Independiente44%
Draw28%
Instituto27%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.07
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Instituto get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
57%Possession49%
42%Territory38%
21%From set plays40%
0.08Chance quality0.06
6.1%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Independiente, 3 for Instituto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Independiente
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.