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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 10

Barracas Central

BAR

Independiente Rivadavia

INE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Barracas Central40%
Draw26%
Independiente Rivadavia33%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.40

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Independiente Rivadavia get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

51%Possession45%
39%Territory40%
5%From set plays23%
0.08Chance quality0.15
6.7%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barracas Central, 3 for Independiente Rivadavia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.