Primera División · Clausura - Round 10
San Lorenzo
SAN
Boca Juniors
BOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
San Lorenzo27%
Draw24%
Boca Juniors50%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.88
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession48%
36%Territory28%
50%From set plays3%
0.07Chance quality0.19
7.6%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for San Lorenzo, 2 for Boca Juniors. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Boca Juniors
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.