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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

A-League Men · Matchweek 15

Auckland FC

AUC

Brisbane Roar FC

BRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Auckland FC47%
Draw28%
Brisbane Roar FC25%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.02

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.6%
  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 2–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

37%Possession63%
36%Territory39%
41%From set plays40%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.1%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auckland FC, 2 for Brisbane Roar FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.