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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

A-League Men · Matchweek 9

Sydney FC

SYD

Perth Glory

PER

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sydney FC44%
Draw29%
Perth Glory28%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.08

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–012.1%
  • 0–09.6%
  • 0–19.1%
  • 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession42%
30%Territory31%
28%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sydney FC, 3 for Perth Glory. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90