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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

A-League Men · Matchweek 5

Wellington Phoenix

WEL

Macarthur FC

MAC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wellington Phoenix46%
Draw26%
Macarthur FC28%

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.24

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.3%
  • 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Macarthur FC will have the ball; Wellington Phoenix will not mind.

33%Possession43%
38%Territory34%
6%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.14
6.5%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wellington Phoenix, 3 for Macarthur FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.