A-League Men · Matchweek 4
Sydney FC
SYD
Central Coast Mariners
CEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sydney FC52%
Draw26%
Central Coast22%
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.99
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession53%
30%Territory36%
28%From set plays15%
0.09Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sydney FC, 3 for Central Coast. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Central Coast
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.