Liga MX · Matchweek 16
Toluca
TOL
Monterrey
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toluca52%
Draw26%
Monterrey22%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.04
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession67%
42%Territory48%
19%From set plays47%
0.15Chance quality0.07
5.7%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toluca, 2 for Monterrey. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Monterrey
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.