Liga MX · Matchweek 16
Toluca
TOL
Monterrey
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toluca42%
Draw25%
Monterrey33%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.50
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
64%Possession61%
51%Territory39%
26%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.15
6.4%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Toluca, 4 for Monterrey.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 134 matches, not the full season.