Liga MX · Matchweek 16
Tigres
TIG
Cruz Azul
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tigres32%
Draw26%
Cruz Azul42%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.56
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession53%
36%Territory42%
27%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tigres, 3 for Cruz Azul. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.