Liga MX · Matchweek 16
Necaxa
NEC
Tijuana
TIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Necaxa32%
Draw27%
Tijuana41%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.48
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession60%
33%Territory36%
45%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.17
7.3%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Necaxa, 2 for Tijuana. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.