Liga MX · Matchweek 13
Toluca
TOL
Tijuana
TIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toluca48%
Draw26%
Tijuana25%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.13
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession60%
42%Territory36%
19%From set plays35%
0.15Chance quality0.17
5.7%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toluca, 2 for Tijuana. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Tijuana
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.