Liga MX · Matchweek 12
Tijuana
TIJ
Puebla
PUE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tijuana53%
Draw26%
Puebla21%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.95
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession45%
36%Territory47%
35%From set plays50%
0.17Chance quality0.05
9.0%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Tijuana, 3 for Puebla. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Tijuana
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.