Liga MX · Matchweek 12
Atlante
ATA
Pumas
PUM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlante46%
Draw27%
Pumas27%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.13
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.1%
- 0–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession40%
42%Territory39%
14%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.06
5.4%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlante, 3 for Pumas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.