Liga MX · Matchweek 11
Atlas
ATL
Chivas
CHI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlas30%
Draw28%
Chivas42%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.45
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Atlas get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
56%Possession58%
33%Territory37%
40%From set plays4%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlas, 3 for Chivas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.