Liga MX · Matchweek 11
FC Juárez
FCJ
Tijuana
TIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Juárez20%
Draw24%
Tijuana56%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–110.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.3%
- 0–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession60%
36%Territory36%
19%From set plays35%
0.07Chance quality0.17
5.5%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Juárez, 2 for Tijuana. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.