Liga MX · Matchweek 11
Tigres
TIG
Toluca
TOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tigres23%
Draw25%
Toluca51%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.69
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toluca will have the ball; Tigres will not mind.
46%Possession59%
36%Territory42%
27%From set plays19%
0.07Chance quality0.15
5.9%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tigres, 3 for Toluca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.