Liga MX · Matchweek 10
León
LEN
FC Juárez
FCJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
León63%
Draw22%
Juárez16%
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.94
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.2%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
40%Territory36%
12%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.5%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for León, 3 for Juárez. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.