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Liga MX · Matchweek 10

León

LEN

FC Juárez

FCJ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

León63%
Draw22%
Juárez16%

Expected goals

2.01 – 0.94

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1011.2%
  • 2010.6%
  • 2110.0%
  • 119.9%
  • 316.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession45%
40%Territory36%
12%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.5%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for León, 3 for Juárez. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.