Liga MX · Matchweek 10
Cruz Azul
CRU
Toluca
TOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cruz Azul33%
Draw26%
Toluca41%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.55
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession59%
42%Territory42%
28%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.15
7.8%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cruz Azul, 3 for Toluca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.