Liga MX · Matchweek 9
Toluca
TOL
Santos Laguna
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toluca62%
Draw22%
Santos16%
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.95
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.2%
- 2–010.4%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toluca will have the ball; Santos will not mind.
59%Possession50%
42%Territory44%
19%From set plays28%
0.15Chance quality0.07
5.7%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toluca, 3 for Santos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.