Liga MX · Matchweek 9
CF América
CFA
Chivas
CHI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
América41%
Draw28%
Chivas31%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.21
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession58%
47%Territory37%
37%From set plays4%
0.06Chance quality0.11
7.2%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for América, 3 for Chivas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.