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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 27

Atlético Ottawa

ATL

Forge FC

FOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Atlético Ottawa23%
Draw30%
Forge FC47%

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.35

Over 2.5

38%

Both to score

45%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–114.9%
  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–011.9%
  • 0–29.3%
  • 1–09.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession53%
38%Territory49%
5.2%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético Ottawa, 3 for Forge FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.