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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 27

Vancouver FC

VAN

HFX Wanderers FC

HFX

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vancouver FC40%
Draw28%
HFX Wanderers FC31%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.21

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–010.7%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–18.6%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession50%
33%Territory30%
7.7%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vancouver FC, 3 for HFX Wanderers FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.