Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 25
Forge FC
FOR
HFX Wanderers FC
HFX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Forge FC63%
Draw24%
HFX Wanderers FC13%
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.65
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.7%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession50%
49%Territory30%
6.2%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Forge FC, 3 for HFX Wanderers FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.