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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 24

HFX Wanderers FC

HFX

Atlético Ottawa

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

HFX Wanderers FC36%
Draw27%
Atlético Ottawa36%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.42

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession55%
30%Territory38%
6.1%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for HFX Wanderers FC, 3 for Atlético Ottawa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.