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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 23

HFX Wanderers FC

HFX

Inter Toronto FC

INT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

HFX Wanderers FC50%
Draw25%
Inter Toronto FC26%

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.26

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 2–07.4%
  • 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession47%
30%Territory38%
6.1%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for HFX Wanderers FC, 4 for Inter Toronto FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.