LaLiga · Matchweek 17
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rayo Vallecano57%
Draw24%
Málaga19%
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.99
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Málaga get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession50%
36%Territory37%
20%From set plays40%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Málaga.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 60 matches, not the full season.