LaLiga · Matchweek 8
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rayo Vallecano34%
Draw28%
Athletic Club38%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.38
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession50%
36%Territory37%
20%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rayo Vallecano, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.