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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 15

Luton Town

LUT

Cambridge United

CAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Luton59%
Draw23%
Cambridge19%

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.05

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.2%
  • 1–110.1%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Luton will have the ball; Cambridge will not mind.

55%Possession44%
28%Territory35%
34%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.12
4.1%Directness7.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Luton, 4 for Cambridge.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.